The math · Working capital

The working capital peg

How it is set, and how it moves the price after close. The trailing twelve-month average, the seasonal case, what the definition leaves out, the sign traps, and a worked example where the seller's closing statement meets the purchase agreement.

A price for a business assumes the business arrives able to run: receivables that will turn into cash, stock on the shelf, suppliers paid on normal terms. The working capital peg says how much of that is enough, and the purchase agreement moves the price by every dollar the delivered working capital lands above or below it. It is one of the few numbers that can still move the price after both sides have agreed it.

The peg, also called the target or the normalized net working capital, is the level of net working capital the buyer and seller agree the business needs on the closing date. Delivered above it, working capital is paid for by the buyer, dollar for dollar; delivered below it, the shortfall comes off the price. This article sets out how the peg is set, what the definition leaves out, where the sign goes wrong, and a worked example.

Why the price needs a peg

An earnings multiple, and a discounted cash flow, already price a business that carries a normal level of working capital: the multiple pays for the earnings, and the earnings need the receivables, the inventory and the supplier credit to happen. The peg is not added to the price; it is the point of zero adjustment.

Without one, a seller could spend the last month before closing collecting every receivable, running inventory down and stretching every supplier, take the cash out, and deliver a business that cannot run. The peg also protects the seller: a business delivered with more than its normal working capital carries value the price did not include, and the adjustment pays for it.

What counts, and what the definition leaves out

Net working capital in a purchase agreement is narrower than current assets less current liabilities. The definition names the lines that count and must be applied the same way to the peg months and to the closing statement. Count income taxes in the peg months and exclude them at close, and the price moves by the taxes.

LineIn the peg?Why
Trade receivables, net of the reserve for doubtful accountsInCash owed for work done, net of the agreed reserve
Inventory, net of the obsolescence reserveInStock to be sold, net of the agreed reserve
Prepaid expenses and deposits paidIn, usuallyPaid once, not paid again by the buyer
Trade payablesInSuppliers the business owes on normal terms
Accrued operating liabilities: payroll, vacation, utilities, commissionsInOperating costs incurred and not yet paid
Cash and cash equivalentsOutSettled on the cash line of a cash-free, debt-free price
Bank debt, the operating line, current term debt, accrued interestOutDebt, settled on the debt line
Debt-like items: customer deposits, deferred revenue, pre-closing bonuses, earned severanceNegotiatedArgued deal by deal; the agreement names them
Income taxes payable or receivable, deferred taxesOutThe seller's taxes for the seller's period
Balances with the seller and related partiesOutSettled or forgiven at closing

The rows marked negotiated are where the argument happens. Deferred revenue is cash the seller collected for work the buyer must now do, so a buyer calls it debt-like and a seller calls it an operating liability that was in every historical month; deposits, the bonus pool and earned severance raise the same question. The purchase agreement's definition governs, with an illustrative calculation attached as a schedule, and a transaction lawyer drafts it. The accounting policies it references decide the reading of every line.

How the peg is set

The standard method is the average of month-end net working capital over the trailing twelve months, each month restated on the agreement's definition. Twelve months is one full cycle of seasons, so a spring build and an autumn drawdown cancel, and one odd month moves the average by a twelfth of its size. The months are normalized before they are averaged: the same reserve policy in every month, one-off items taken out, and cut-off errors corrected.

The alternatives are argued by direction. A higher peg means the seller must deliver more working capital for the same price, so the buyer wants it high and the seller low. On a growing business the recent months carry more working capital than the year as a whole, so the buyer argues for the last three months and the seller for the full twelve; on a shrinking business the sides swap. Neither is wrong about the arithmetic; the argument is which months describe the business on the closing date.

Seasonality is the case that catches people. A business that peaks in late summer and troughs in February carries less working capital in February than in any other month. Close in February against a twelve-month average peg and the seller falls short by the normal seasonal gap, and pays for delivering the business in its ordinary condition. The fixes are a peg matched to the expected closing month, usually the same month in the prior year, or a schedule of pegs by month. Two further methods: an average of selected months, with the exclusions and the reason recorded, and a negotiated peg, legitimate as long as the reason is written down.

How the closing adjustment moves the price

Before closing the seller delivers an estimated closing statement, and the price paid on the closing date is adjusted by the estimate. Within a window the agreement sets, the buyer prepares the final closing statement; the seller accepts it or objects, and a dispute goes to an independent accountant whose decision on the accounting is final. The difference from the estimate is paid in cash or from escrow. A collar, a band around the peg within which no adjustment is made, or a cap on the adjustment, is a negotiated term, not a default.

The adjustment itself is dollar for dollar: delivered working capital minus the peg. Three places the sign goes wrong.

  • Direction. Write it as delivered minus peg, so a positive result is money the buyer pays and a negative result comes off the price. Written as peg minus delivered, a shortfall reads as an amount the buyer owes.
  • Negative working capital. A subscription business, a deposit-funded builder or a restaurant can run on negative net working capital, because customers pay before the cost is incurred, and its peg is negative too. Delivered working capital more negative than the peg is a shortfall, and the price comes down; readers get this backwards because a smaller negative looks like more.
  • A level, not a flow. The peg is a balance on one date; the working capital deduction in a lender's cash available for debt service is the change in that balance over a year, and neither belongs in the other's line. The deduction and its sign conventions are set out in our article on cash available for debt service.

A worked example

Every figure in this section is a worked example. A buyer is acquiring a building-products distributor with revenue of about $3.6M, busy from late spring to early autumn and quiet in winter. The buyer's advisor restates month-end net working capital on the agreement's definition for the trailing twelve months:

Jan $278K Feb $262K Mar $268K Apr $281K
May $290K Jun $302K Jul $312K Aug $321K
Sep $328K Oct $310K Nov $298K Dec $290K
Sum of the twelve months $3,540K
÷ 12 = Twelve-month average $295K
Average of the last three months (Oct to Dec) $299K
Same month last year, March $268K

The parties sign in December with closing expected at the end of March. The buyer's first draft proposes the average of the last three months, $299K; the seller's advisor answers that October to December sit on the downslope of the season and that March ran at $268K the year before. The twelve-month average, $295K, goes into the agreement as the peg, and nobody looks at the March figure again.

At the end of March the seller's bookkeeper prepares the estimated closing statement:

Seller's estimated closing statement, 31 March, per the books
Cash $62K
Trade receivables $318K
Inventory $122K
Prepaid expenses $14K
Trade payables $142K
Accrued liabilities $41K (including $11K of income taxes payable and $3K of accrued interest)
Operating line of credit $85K

Seller's calculation, cash in and the line out
$62K + $318K + $122K + $14K − $142K − $41K = $333K
Claimed excess over the $295K peg $38K

The seller asks to be paid $38K on top of the price. The buyer's advisor reads the statement against the agreement's definition:

Trade receivables $318K
− receivables over ninety days, reserved under the agreed policies $9K
Inventory $122K
− obsolete stock per the closing count $6K
Prepaid expenses $14K
= Operating current assets $439K
Trade payables $142K
Accrued liabilities $41K
− income taxes payable, excluded $11K
− accrued interest, settled with the operating line $3K
= Operating current liabilities $169K
Delivered working capital $270K

Adjustment = delivered − peg = $270K − $295K = −$25K
The price comes down by $25K

The seller's $38K excess and the buyer's $25K shortfall are $63K apart, and not a dollar of it is working capital: the $62K of cash the seller counted comes out, and the seller keeps it on the cash line of the price; the $14K of tax and interest comes out of the liabilities, which raises the figure; the $15K of reserves the agreed policies require comes off. All of it was answerable in December.

Then the method. A peg matched to the expected closing month, $268K, would have turned the same closing statement into an excess of $2K, paid by the buyer. The $27K between the two outcomes is the choice of averaging method, which is why the method is argued before the price is final and recorded beside the peg. And the sign: written as peg minus delivered, $295K less $270K reads as $25K the buyer owes.

Educational guide, not advice. This guide is general information, not investment, legal, tax, accounting, lending or valuation advice. Rules, ratios, prices and worked figures are stated as of the date shown, are drawn from public sources and our own experience, and can be out of date or wrong; they are not a substitute for a lender's, regulator's or program's current rules. Verify any figure with its primary source and a qualified professional before acting on it.

How Acquiror AI does this

The Working Capital module in Acquiror AI unlocks once a deal's financials are extracted. Enter monthly, quarterly or annual periods with the balance-sheet lines, revenue and cost of sales, and the module computes DSO, DIO, DPO and the cash conversion cycle for each period on that period's own day count; a figure that cannot be computed shows a dash, never a zero. Import an AR aging to see which receivables are at risk, and set an inventory reserve override, with a tie-out warning when the balance sheet does not balance. Peg scenarios are built by more than one method, a 12-month average, a 3-month average, selected periods, a seasonal match to an expected closing month, or a manual peg with a recorded reason, and one is selected for the purchase agreement with its method recorded. The closing adjustment simulation takes a delivered working capital figure against a peg scenario and shows the variance above or below it, and the investment memo's working capital section carries the peg, the trends and the purchase-price adjustment. The module does not write the definition. The purchase agreement's definition governs, a transaction lawyer drafts it, and the module's figures are the analysis you bring to that drafting.

The takeaway

Set the definition first and apply it to every month. Average the months the business will look like on the closing date, and write the method beside the peg. Compute the adjustment as delivered minus peg, and read a negative peg with care. Someone who has read the agreement will argue the closing statement line by line; the only question is whose side they are on. Every term in this article is defined in the glossary.

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Common working capital peg questions

What is a working capital peg?

The level of net working capital the buyer and seller agree the business needs on the closing date, written into the purchase agreement. Working capital delivered above the peg is paid for by the buyer, dollar for dollar, and working capital delivered below it comes off the price. The peg itself is never added to the price: an earnings multiple already assumes a business arrives with a normal level of working capital, and the peg is the point at which no adjustment is made.

How is the working capital peg calculated?

Most often as the average of month-end net working capital over the trailing twelve months, with each month restated on the agreement's definition and one-off items removed. A business that is growing or shrinking may argue for the most recent months instead, and a seasonal business closing in a low or high month needs a peg matched to the expected closing month, or a schedule of pegs by month. In the worked example above, the twelve-month average is $295K and the expected closing month ran at $268K the year before, a gap large enough to move the price on its own.

What happens if working capital at closing is below the peg?

The price comes down by the shortfall, dollar for dollar, unless the agreement sets a collar within which no adjustment is made. The adjustment is first made on the seller's estimate at closing, then trued up on the final closing statement the buyer prepares within the window the agreement sets, with a dispute going to an independent accountant. In the worked example above, delivered working capital of $270K against a $295K peg reduces the price by $25K.

Is cash included in the working capital peg?

No, in a cash-free, debt-free deal. Cash is settled on its own line of the price, as is debt, and counting either inside working capital would count it twice. Income taxes and related-party balances are also left out as a rule. Debt-like items such as deferred revenue, customer deposits and accrued bonuses are negotiated, and the purchase agreement's definition decides which side of the line each one sits on.

Set the peg before the other side does

Trend the cash cycle, model the peg by more than one method and simulate the closing adjustment on your own deal. The free valuation calculator gives a starting range on the price. Then join the waitlist for a 14-day trial of AI-assisted valuations and diligence that stand up to lenders, sellers and an investment committee.